Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP092022 220806 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.70    106.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     31.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     16.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    102.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.6  16.5  15.4  16.1  15.0  16.0  12.2  11.1  N  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   15.0  15.0  16.0  13.0  10.0   9.0   2.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        134.3 132.0 127.3 122.9 104.8  94.3  89.6  78.0  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    75.0  47.0  28.0  43.0  47.0  18.0  38.0  -3.0  N  N  U  N  N  U  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   70.0  69.0  70.0  70.0  70.0  66.0  60.0  56.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0  -6.0  -6.0  -5.0  -3.0   3.0   0.0   1.0  N  F  F  F  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.4%        1.7%        1.1%
 25kt / 24h        3.3%       16.3%        9.8%
 30kt / 24h        1.2%        6.8%        4.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.4%        6.3%        3.3%
 40kt / 24h        0.3%        6.3%        3.3%
 45kt / 36h        2.4%       18.5%       10.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        6.6%        3.3%
 55kt / 48h        5.3%        3.6%        4.5%
 70kt / 48h        3.6%        5.1%        4.4%
 65kt / 72h        4.5%        8.4%        6.4%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.28

 EP092022 220806 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.70    106.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    102.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.6  16.5  15.4  16.1  15.0  16.0  12.2  11.1  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   70.0  69.0  70.0  70.0  70.0  66.0  60.0  56.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0  -6.0  -6.0  -5.0  -3.0   3.0   0.0   1.0  N  U  U  U  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%