Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP092022 220807 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.40    107.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     36.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     21.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    105.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.1  14.5  16.1  16.2  16.0  18.7  17.6  16.9  F  F  F  F  F  N  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   16.0  15.0  12.0  10.0  10.0   6.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        129.6 125.1 118.6 112.4  96.0  92.7  82.2  70.5  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    31.0  13.0  37.0  39.0  -3.0   2.0  17.0 -14.0  N  U  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   70.0  70.0  71.0  71.0  69.0  64.0  61.0  55.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0  -4.0  -5.0  -2.0   0.0   6.0   3.0   0.0  F  F  F  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.4%        1.7%        1.0%
 25kt / 24h        1.6%       11.9%        6.7%
 30kt / 24h        0.6%        5.1%        2.8%
 35kt / 24h        0.3%        4.4%        2.3%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        4.4%        2.2%
 45kt / 36h        1.1%       14.8%        7.9%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        5.5%        2.8%
 55kt / 48h        2.9%        2.2%        2.5%
 70kt / 48h        2.2%        3.4%        2.8%
 65kt / 72h        0.8%        3.9%        2.3%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.92

 EP092022 220807 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.40    107.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    105.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.1  14.5  16.1  16.2  16.0  18.7  17.6  16.9  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   70.0  70.0  71.0  71.0  69.0  64.0  61.0  55.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0  -4.0  -5.0  -2.0   0.0   6.0   3.0   0.0  U  U  U  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%