Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP092022 220807 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.00    108.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     12.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      3.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     87.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        14.4  16.8  18.1  14.9  16.2  15.7  14.5  13.6  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   15.0  12.0  10.0  11.0   8.0   1.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        125.1 116.5 110.5 101.2  94.3  88.0  75.4  65.9  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     4.0   5.0  24.0  41.0   6.0  50.0  39.0 -25.0  U  U  U  N  U  N  N VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   70.0  70.0  70.0  69.0  66.0  60.0  57.0  52.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -5.0  -3.0  -2.0  -4.0   4.0   0.0   2.0   0.0  F  N  N  F  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.2%        1.0%        0.6%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        5.1%        2.9%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        1.8%        1.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.1%        1.5%        0.8%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        1.5%        0.7%
 45kt / 36h        0.3%        7.7%        4.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        2.3%        1.1%
 55kt / 48h        2.6%        2.6%        2.6%
 70kt / 48h        2.6%        1.8%        2.2%
 65kt / 72h        1.1%        2.7%        1.9%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.58

 EP092022 220807 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.00    108.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     87.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        14.4  16.8  18.1  14.9  16.2  15.7  14.5  13.6  U  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   70.0  70.0  70.0  69.0  66.0  60.0  57.0  52.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -5.0  -3.0  -2.0  -4.0   4.0   0.0   2.0   0.0  U  N  N  U  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%