Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP092022 220807 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.40    109.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     41.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     30.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     81.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        14.4  17.9  17.9  13.9  16.4  14.9  14.7  15.6  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   12.0  11.0  12.0  11.0   5.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        120.7 112.4 103.0  96.0  92.7  80.8  70.5  61.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -1.0  31.0  52.0   0.0  28.0  44.0   4.0 -37.0  U  N  N  U  U  N  U VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   69.0  69.0  67.0  68.0  63.0  57.0  52.0  48.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -1.0  -4.0   0.0   5.0   2.0   0.0   1.0  N  N  F  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.3%        1.4%        0.9%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        6.7%        3.7%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        2.7%        1.4%
 35kt / 24h        0.1%        2.1%        1.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        2.1%        1.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.4%       11.7%        6.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        4.1%        2.1%
 55kt / 48h        3.1%        3.1%        3.1%
 70kt / 48h        3.1%        2.6%        2.9%
 65kt / 72h        0.7%        2.8%        1.8%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.34

 EP092022 220807 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.40    109.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.