Rapid Intensification Guidance EP092022 220807 18UTC Storm Located at : 17.20 110.40 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 33.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 20.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 5.40 F TC SIZE [%] 77.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 17.1 16.0 13.0 15.6 16.4 17.8 19.0 21.7 F F F F F F N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 11.0 13.0 13.0 10.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 107.4 99.8 91.0 89.3 80.0 67.9 58.8 50.9 N N N N N U U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 33.0 46.0 -7.0 15.0 5.0 -2.0 10.0 -25.0 N N U U U U U VU Humidity 700-500 hPa 70.0 68.0 68.0 66.0 62.0 58.0 49.0 45.0 N N N N N U U VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 -5.0 0.0 9.0 5.0 5.0 4.0 0.0 N F N U N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.9% 1.7% 1.3% 25kt / 24h 0.7% 6.7% 3.7% 30kt / 24h 0.4% 2.7% 1.5% 35kt / 24h 0.3% 2.2% 1.3% 40kt / 24h 0.3% 2.2% 1.3% 45kt / 36h 0.5% 11.9% 6.2% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 4.4% 2.2% 55kt / 48h 3.7% 3.7% 3.7% 70kt / 48h 3.7% 2.0% 2.8% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 1.3% 0.7% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.00 EP092022 220807 18UTC Storm Located at : 17.20 110.40 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35.