Rapid Intensification Guidance EP092022 220808 00UTC Storm Located at : 18.00 111.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 40.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 37.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 6.10 F TC SIZE [%] 91.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 13.2 14.0 16.1 18.1 21.1 18.0 19.8 21.9 F F F F N F N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 14.0 12.0 10.0 8.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 98.0 91.0 89.3 81.5 69.2 58.8 50.0 41.2 N N N N U U U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 46.0 8.0 -11.0 -14.0 2.0 -7.0 -12.0 -8.0 N U U U U U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 66.0 66.0 65.0 63.0 60.0 54.0 50.0 45.0 N N N N N U U VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -3.0 4.0 11.0 5.0 4.0 5.0 2.0 6.0 N N U N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.9% 1.5% 1.2% 25kt / 24h 0.6% 4.6% 2.6% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 1.8% 1.0% 35kt / 24h 0.2% 1.4% 0.8% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 1.4% 0.7% 45kt / 36h 0.2% 7.7% 4.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 2.8% 1.4% 55kt / 48h 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 26.60 EP092022 220808 00UTC Storm Located at : 18.00 111.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35.