Rapid Intensification Guidance EP092022 220808 06UTC Storm Located at : 18.80 112.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 45. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 45.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 2.60 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 42.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 21.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 7.80 F TC SIZE [%] 78.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 15.3 15.8 16.8 18.2 20.5 19.3 22.1 22.6 F F F F N N N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 11.0 10.0 4.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 79.3 79.3 71.5 63.0 53.2 43.7 33.4 28.4 N N U U U U VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 8.0 14.0 15.0 17.0 7.0 -25.0 -34.0 -15.0 U U U U U VU VU U Humidity 700-500 hPa 65.0 64.0 61.0 58.0 55.0 50.0 45.0 41.0 N N N U U U VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 6.0 10.0 4.0 1.0 8.0 6.0 7.0 7.0 N U N N U N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 2.8% 2.6% 2.7% 25kt / 24h 0.9% 5.0% 3.0% 30kt / 24h 0.8% 2.2% 1.5% 35kt / 24h 0.5% 1.9% 1.2% 40kt / 24h 0.5% 1.9% 1.2% 45kt / 36h 0.3% 7.4% 3.9% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 3.0% 1.5% 55kt / 48h 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 26.16 EP092022 220808 06UTC Storm Located at : 18.80 112.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 45.