Rapid Intensification Guidance EP092022 220808 12UTC Storm Located at : 19.80 113.10 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 55. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 55.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 15.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 7.00 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 53.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 38.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 8.00 F TC SIZE [%] 68.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 18.5 18.8 19.1 21.1 17.9 18.2 20.6 20.9 N N N N F F N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 10.0 4.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 91.5 83.5 74.4 67.7 50.4 33.7 23.4 18.4 N N U U U VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 29.0 19.0 3.0 3.0 -19.0 -8.0 9.0 -3.0 N U U U U U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 65.0 63.0 58.0 60.0 54.0 49.0 43.0 40.0 N N U N U U VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 11.0 5.0 0.0 4.0 3.0 5.0 8.0 6.0 U N N N N N U N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 15.2% 10.2% 12.7% 25kt / 24h 7.8% 17.0% 12.4% 30kt / 24h 7.7% 9.8% 8.8% 35kt / 24h 7.7% 9.8% 8.8% 40kt / 24h 7.7% 9.8% 8.8% 45kt / 36h 2.4% 14.2% 8.3% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 6.6% 3.3% 55kt / 48h 0.3% 0.7% 0.5% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.12 EP092022 220808 12UTC Storm Located at : 19.80 113.10 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 55.