Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP092022 220808 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.30    113.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    65.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    65.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    20.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     55.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     16.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     84.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.9  17.4  19.1  19.2  16.2  18.8  18.9  18.8  N  F  N  N  F  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    4.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         75.5  66.2  57.7  50.0  33.2  18.3  11.2   7.7  U  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     9.0  -8.0 -18.0 -19.0 -40.0  -5.0 -23.0  -3.0  U  U  U  U VU  U VU  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   62.0  59.0  59.0  57.0  53.0  48.0  43.0  43.0  N  U  U  U  U  U VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   2.0   4.0   4.0   3.0   7.0   8.0   5.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       26.0%       13.4%       19.7%
 25kt / 24h       11.1%       15.7%       13.4%
 30kt / 24h       11.1%       10.6%       10.9%
 35kt / 24h       10.6%       10.6%       10.6%
 40kt / 24h        7.4%       10.6%        9.0%
 45kt / 36h        2.3%       11.3%        6.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 26.76

 EP092022 220808 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.30    113.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    65.