Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP092022 220809 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.90    114.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    70.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    70.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     21.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      9.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     79.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.9  18.0  18.5  18.6  16.5  19.6  21.3  22.8  F  F  N  N  F  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         61.2  52.7  43.6  36.7  20.7  10.0   4.1   1.4  U  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -18.0 -29.0 -51.0 -36.0 -12.0  24.0  27.0  -3.0  U VU VU VU  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   59.0  59.0  57.0  55.0  50.0  45.0  44.0  41.0  U  U  U  U  U VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   2.0   4.0   3.0   7.0   8.0   7.0   9.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       18.8%        5.7%       12.2%
 25kt / 24h        4.2%        4.6%        4.4%
 30kt / 24h        4.2%        2.5%        3.3%
 35kt / 24h        3.8%        2.5%        3.2%
 40kt / 24h        3.4%        2.5%        3.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 26.26

 EP092022 220809 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.90    114.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    70.