Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP092022 220809 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.90    116.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    75.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     33.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      9.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     51.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.3  18.2  15.5  17.5  18.7  20.6  19.5  18.9  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         40.0  31.7  23.2  15.7   5.0  -1.6  -4.2  -4.8  U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -34.0 -33.0 -52.0 -15.0  31.0  -9.0  -4.0 -38.0 VU VU VU  U  N  U  U VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   57.0  54.0  51.0  49.0  43.0  41.0  40.0  39.0  U  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   4.0   4.0   5.0   7.0   8.0   6.0   7.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        5.2%        1.7%        3.4%
 25kt / 24h        0.5%        1.1%        0.8%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 25.12

 EP092022 220809 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.90    116.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.