Rapid Intensification Guidance EP092022 220809 18UTC Storm Located at : 22.30 117.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 65. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 65.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 6.60 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 18.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 3.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 7.40 F TC SIZE [%] 58.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 20.5 17.4 19.2 17.7 18.9 19.4 18.3 20.2 N F N F N N F N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 43.0 34.3 27.7 20.9 11.9 7.1 5.8 5.8 U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -28.0 -39.0 -5.0 21.0 -24.0 -2.0 -33.0 -29.0 VU VU U U VU U VU VU Humidity 700-500 hPa 53.0 49.0 49.0 45.0 40.0 40.0 37.0 35.0 U U U VU VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 4.0 4.0 6.0 2.0 9.0 6.0 8.0 6.0 N N N N U N U N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 24.62 EP092022 220809 18UTC Storm Located at : 22.30 117.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 65.