Rapid Intensification Guidance EP092022 220810 00UTC Storm Located at : 22.90 118.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 60. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 60.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -15.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 5.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 13.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 3.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 6.10 F TC SIZE [%] 57.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 16.6 17.7 16.5 19.5 19.5 19.3 18.3 20.4 F F F N N N F N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 40.5 33.8 26.8 21.6 14.7 10.8 10.2 10.8 U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -20.0 -15.0 8.0 12.0 -27.0 -22.0 -33.0 -38.0 VU U U U VU VU VU VU Humidity 700-500 hPa 49.0 49.0 43.0 41.0 39.0 36.0 36.0 33.0 U U VU VU VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 2.0 5.0 4.0 6.0 9.0 5.0 8.0 5.0 N N N N U N U N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 24.06 EP092022 220810 00UTC Storm Located at : 22.90 118.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 60.