Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP092022 220810 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     23.30    118.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      2.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     54.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.7  18.0  20.9  20.3  20.6  19.7  21.4  21.4  N  F  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         38.8  31.8  26.6  21.9  17.1  15.8  15.8  15.8  U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -17.0  14.0   9.0 -28.0 -17.0 -46.0 -32.0 -32.0  U  U  U VU  U VU VU VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   48.0  45.0  42.0  38.0  38.0  35.0  34.0  34.0  U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   6.0   6.0   7.0   9.0   7.0   9.0   7.0   7.0  N  N  N  U  N  U  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.1%        0.0%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 23.44

 EP092022 220810 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     23.30    118.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.