Rapid Intensification Guidance EP092022 220810 12UTC Storm Located at : 23.60 119.80 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 50. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 50.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -10.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 3.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 3.50 F TC SIZE [%] 59.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 19.0 21.1 19.2 22.4 21.8 21.9 24.5 24.5 N N N N N N N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 36.8 31.6 27.6 24.1 20.8 20.8 22.1 22.1 U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 11.0 3.0 -25.0 -30.0 -12.0 -52.0 -42.0 -42.0 U U VU VU U VU VU VU Humidity 700-500 hPa 44.0 42.0 39.0 40.0 37.0 36.0 32.0 32.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 6.0 7.0 9.0 7.0 6.0 8.0 5.0 5.0 N N U N N U N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 22.86 EP092022 220810 12UTC Storm Located at : 23.60 119.80 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 50.