Rapid Intensification Guidance EP092022 220810 18UTC Storm Located at : 23.80 120.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 45. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 45.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -10.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 7.00 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 0.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 1.50 F TC SIZE [%] 61.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 21.7 20.0 21.1 21.2 20.5 23.5 27.3 27.3 N N N N N N N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 35.8 31.9 29.1 27.1 25.8 26.4 28.4 28.4 U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 13.0 -16.0 -34.0 1.0 -28.0 -26.0 -58.0 -58.0 U U VU U VU VU VU VU Humidity 700-500 hPa 40.0 38.0 37.0 37.0 34.0 34.0 29.0 29.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 8.0 10.0 6.0 5.0 9.0 5.0 9.0 9.0 U U N N U N U U Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 22.28 EP092022 220810 18UTC Storm Located at : 23.80 120.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 45.