Rapid Intensification Guidance EP092022 220811 00UTC Storm Located at : 24.00 121.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 40. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 40.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -10.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 9.40 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 0.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 1.40 F TC SIZE [%] 65.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 21.9 23.8 24.7 24.1 25.7 26.0 26.0 26.0 N N N N N N N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 36.9 33.4 31.4 30.8 30.8 32.1 32.1 32.1 U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -25.0 -21.0 -4.0 -28.0 -29.0 -42.0 -42.0 -42.0 VU VU U VU VU VU VU VU Humidity 700-500 hPa 37.0 36.0 35.0 35.0 33.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 9.0 4.0 4.0 6.0 7.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 U N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 21.84 EP092022 220811 00UTC Storm Located at : 24.00 121.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 40.