Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP102022 220820 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.30    122.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     29.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     13.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     57.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.0  18.0  16.2  12.3  12.8   8.3  11.0   8.4  F  F  F  F  F VF  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   12.0  14.0  14.0  12.0   2.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        119.4 117.4 115.5 111.6 101.0  91.5  84.4  80.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    18.0  27.0  36.0  78.0  81.0  26.0  10.0  25.0  U  U  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   54.0  56.0  57.0  58.0  59.0  60.0  55.0  56.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   2.0   2.0   1.0  -3.0  -3.0   2.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.3%        1.2%        0.7%
 25kt / 24h        0.9%        8.6%        4.7%
 30kt / 24h        0.5%        3.1%        1.8%
 35kt / 24h        0.5%        2.6%        1.5%
 40kt / 24h        0.5%        2.6%        1.5%
 45kt / 36h        1.2%       21.4%       11.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        8.7%        4.3%
 55kt / 48h       12.8%       12.8%       12.8%
 70kt / 48h       12.8%        7.8%       10.3%
 65kt / 72h        8.4%       10.3%        9.4%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.36

 EP102022 220820 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.30    122.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.