Rapid Intensification Guidance EP102022 220820 18UTC Storm Located at : 16.40 122.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 25. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 25.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 11.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 13.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 9.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 4.60 F TC SIZE [%] 59.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 16.7 13.9 12.5 12.2 10.8 9.6 8.9 11.2 F F F F F F F F Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 13.0 12.0 9.0 3.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 113.5 111.6 108.0 102.7 93.0 85.8 80.4 77.9 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 18.0 23.0 76.0 71.0 62.0 13.0 13.0 -4.0 U U N N N U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 54.0 56.0 57.0 56.0 59.0 54.0 57.0 53.0 U U U U U U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 2.0 1.0 -2.0 -2.0 -3.0 1.0 2.0 2.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.2% 0.8% 0.5% 25kt / 24h 0.6% 5.2% 2.9% 30kt / 24h 0.3% 1.7% 1.0% 35kt / 24h 0.3% 1.4% 0.8% 40kt / 24h 0.3% 1.4% 0.8% 45kt / 36h 0.6% 14.2% 7.4% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 5.0% 2.5% 55kt / 48h 14.4% 14.4% 14.4% 70kt / 48h 14.4% 4.9% 9.6% 65kt / 72h 6.7% 6.7% 6.7% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.02 EP102022 220820 18UTC Storm Located at : 16.40 122.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 25.