Rapid Intensification Guidance EP102022 220821 00UTC Storm Located at : 16.60 123.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 25. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 25.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 4.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 1.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 3.90 F TC SIZE [%] 52.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 13.7 10.6 9.3 10.8 8.9 11.9 11.1 12.8 F F F F F F F F Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 10.0 4.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 109.8 104.4 99.3 94.6 85.8 79.2 75.5 73.2 N N N N N N U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 29.0 67.0 70.0 64.0 41.0 8.0 -10.0 -26.0 N N N N N U U VU Humidity 700-500 hPa 55.0 55.0 55.0 58.0 57.0 53.0 52.0 48.0 U U U U U U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 1.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 1.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.4% 0.2% 25kt / 24h 0.5% 2.6% 1.5% 30kt / 24h 0.3% 0.8% 0.5% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.6% 0.3% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.6% 0.3% 45kt / 36h 0.3% 7.9% 4.1% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 2.4% 1.2% 55kt / 48h 12.9% 12.9% 12.9% 70kt / 48h 12.9% 2.1% 7.5% 65kt / 72h 3.9% 2.7% 3.3% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 26.68 EP102022 220821 00UTC Storm Located at : 16.60 123.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 25.