Rapid Intensification Guidance EP102022 220821 18UTC Storm Located at : 17.10 126.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 25. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 25.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 4.60 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 9.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 6.20 F TC SIZE [%] 72.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 12.7 11.8 11.2 11.8 9.8 10.4 10.0 13.7 F F F F F F F F Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 99.3 94.6 88.6 83.0 75.5 72.0 69.8 73.2 N N N N U U U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 84.0 76.0 56.0 29.0 33.0 23.0 0.0 -11.0 N N N N N U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 56.0 59.0 57.0 54.0 53.0 49.0 47.0 46.0 U U U U U U VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -1.0 0.0 2.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 1.0 1.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 1.6% 0.9% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.5% 0.3% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.3% 0.2% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.3% 0.2% 45kt / 36h 0.1% 5.3% 2.7% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 1.7% 0.8% 55kt / 48h 15.8% 15.8% 15.8% 70kt / 48h 15.8% 1.6% 8.7% 65kt / 72h 3.9% 2.1% 3.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 26.04 EP102022 220821 18UTC Storm Located at : 17.10 126.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 25.