Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP112022 220902 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.30    111.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     69.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     45.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    145.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        13.9  13.8  16.8  18.8  20.7  15.4  22.1  19.0  F  F  F  N  N  F  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   36.0  20.0   7.0   4.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 132.0  91.1  69.3  51.6  43.4  F  F  F  F  N  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    93.0  95.0  84.0  63.0 -24.0   2.0 -28.0   6.0  F  F  N  N VU  U VU  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   77.0  77.0  74.0  73.0  72.0  65.0  64.0  56.0  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -6.0  -2.0  -2.0   0.0   1.0   1.0   2.0   0.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.2%        5.1%        3.1%
 25kt / 24h       14.0%       40.2%       27.1%
 30kt / 24h        4.7%       23.7%       14.2%
 35kt / 24h        3.5%       23.3%       13.4%
 40kt / 24h        0.4%       22.6%       11.5%
 45kt / 36h        3.8%       33.4%       18.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       16.7%        8.3%
 55kt / 48h        5.8%        2.9%        4.3%
 70kt / 48h        2.9%        7.8%        5.3%
 65kt / 72h        0.2%        4.1%        2.2%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.30

 EP112022 220902 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.30    111.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    145.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        13.9  13.8  16.8  18.8  20.7  15.4  22.1  19.0  U  U  N  N  N  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   77.0  77.0  74.0  73.0  72.0  65.0  64.0  56.0  U  U  N  N  N  N  N  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -6.0  -2.0  -2.0   0.0   1.0   1.0   2.0   0.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%