Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP112022 220902 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.50    111.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     72.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     56.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    145.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.2  17.2  18.5  19.9  20.5  21.2  18.9  22.3  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   29.0  10.0   5.0   2.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 111.5  81.5  59.8  44.2  38.4  F  F  F  N  N  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    88.0  58.0  84.0  40.0   2.0   1.0  -4.0 -18.0  F  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   77.0  74.0  74.0  73.0  70.0  62.0  57.0  50.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0  -4.0   0.0   0.0   7.0  -2.0   7.0   5.0  N  F  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        3.3%        7.7%        5.5%
 25kt / 24h       16.9%       41.1%       29.0%
 30kt / 24h        7.1%       25.7%       16.4%
 35kt / 24h        6.6%       25.7%       16.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.8%       24.7%       12.7%
 45kt / 36h        4.1%       32.0%       18.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       16.4%        8.2%
 55kt / 48h        4.0%        2.2%        3.1%
 70kt / 48h        2.2%        6.1%        4.1%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        2.6%        1.3%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.00

 EP112022 220902 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.50    111.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    145.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.2  17.2  18.5  19.9  20.5  21.2  18.9  22.3  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   77.0  74.0  74.0  73.0  70.0  62.0  57.0  50.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0  -4.0   0.0   0.0   7.0  -2.0   7.0   5.0  N  U  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%