Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP112022 220902 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.20    111.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     72.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     59.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    152.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.3  20.5  18.4  21.4  18.0  25.1  23.9  22.8  N  N  F  N  F  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   10.0   5.0   3.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        125.0 125.0 108.6  86.0  65.4  43.3  34.7  32.1  N  N  N  N  U  U VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    71.0  67.0  22.0  -9.0 -15.0 -26.0 -11.0  -5.0  N  N  U  U  U VU  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   74.0  73.0  72.0  71.0  64.0  62.0  55.0  51.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0   0.0   0.0   1.0   2.0   5.0   3.0   0.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        8.1%       10.3%        9.2%
 25kt / 24h       12.8%       31.7%       22.3%
 30kt / 24h       10.0%       19.4%       14.7%
 35kt / 24h       10.0%       19.4%       14.7%
 40kt / 24h        0.6%       18.6%        9.6%
 45kt / 36h        2.7%       26.5%       14.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       13.9%        7.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.8%        0.8%        0.8%
 70kt / 48h        0.8%        3.2%        2.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.44

 EP112022 220902 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.20    111.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    152.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.3  20.5  18.4  21.4  18.0  25.1  23.9  22.8  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   74.0  73.0  72.0  71.0  64.0  62.0  55.0  51.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0   0.0   0.0   1.0   2.0   5.0   3.0   0.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%