Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP112022 220903 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.60    112.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     66.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     34.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    140.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.5  21.0  19.9  17.9  22.6  21.0  20.6  20.7  F  N  N  F  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    3.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         97.4  73.0  59.2  54.3  38.3  29.1  25.8  25.2  N  U  U  U  U VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    41.0 -28.0 -34.0  31.0   4.0 -19.0  -6.0   1.0  N VU VU  N  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   72.0  72.0  68.0  65.0  62.0  55.0  51.0  46.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   4.0   9.0   4.0   7.0   0.0   0.0  -1.0  N  N  U  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.7%        2.6%        2.2%
 25kt / 24h        0.7%        4.5%        2.6%
 30kt / 24h        0.7%        2.1%        1.4%
 35kt / 24h        0.7%        1.8%        1.3%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        1.7%        0.9%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        4.4%        2.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        1.7%        0.8%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 26.32

 EP112022 220903 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.60    112.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.