Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP112022 220903 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     23.50    113.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     36.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     27.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    111.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.4  20.7  21.6  25.4  20.0  25.0  25.9  27.1  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         74.6  60.4  55.5  46.7  32.6  26.4  25.2  26.4  U  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -34.0 -24.0  29.0  -1.0  -2.0  -7.0   5.0 -12.0 VU VU  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  66.0  64.0  63.0  57.0  51.0  47.0  42.0  N  N  N  N  U  U VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   6.0  13.0   6.0   9.0   8.0  -2.0   3.0   1.0  N  U  N  U  U  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.7%        0.7%        0.7%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.8%        0.5%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.3%        0.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        1.2%        0.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 25.44

 EP112022 220903 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     23.50    113.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.