Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP112022 220903 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     24.70    114.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     31.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     16.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    128.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.2  23.1  24.2  24.3  25.2  24.8  33.3  30.8  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         56.7  49.8  41.8  34.2  26.4  24.6  25.8  27.7  U  U  U VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -15.0  28.0 -13.0 -36.0 -14.0 -19.0   9.0   4.0  U  U  U VU  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   66.0  64.0  62.0  59.0  51.0  48.0  44.0  39.0  N  N  N  U  U  U VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  13.0  11.0   6.0   9.0   1.0   4.0   7.0   2.0  U  U  N  U  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.1%        0.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 24.16

 EP112022 220903 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     24.70    114.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.