Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP112022 220904 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     26.40    116.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    106.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.2  26.7  24.4  25.2  25.0  29.3  28.8  40.1  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         48.7  40.0  35.4  31.4  29.0  30.2  32.7  36.2  U  U  U VU VU VU VU  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -19.0 -49.0 -29.0 -21.0 -12.0   4.0 -30.0   5.0  U VU VU VU  U  U VU  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   63.0  62.0  58.0  56.0  50.0  45.0  39.0  33.0  N  N  U  U  U VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   8.0  10.0  11.0   3.0   5.0   4.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 22.78

 EP112022 220904 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     26.40    116.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.