Rapid Intensification Guidance EP112022 220904 06UTC Storm Located at : 27.00 117.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 30.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -10.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 5.00 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 0.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 0.90 F TC SIZE [%] 101.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 28.0 23.6 27.6 26.6 29.4 31.9 32.4 44.0 N N N N N U U VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 49.2 42.7 40.8 39.0 39.6 40.8 44.1 46.9 U U U U U U U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -55.0 -35.0 -33.0 -17.0 2.0 -20.0 -29.0 -16.0 VU VU VU U U VU VU U Humidity 700-500 hPa 61.0 58.0 55.0 51.0 45.0 38.0 33.0 27.0 N U U U VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 11.0 15.0 5.0 2.0 6.0 0.0 0.0 -1.0 U U N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 21.96 EP112022 220904 06UTC Storm Located at : 27.00 117.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30.