Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP122022 220904 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.90    100.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     64.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     45.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    135.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.7  21.1  25.1  26.2  21.3  21.8  24.3  17.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   17.0  17.0  17.0  17.0  20.0  17.0  14.0  31.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    92.0 108.0  77.0 104.0 175.0 157.0 115.0 102.0  F  F  N  F VF VF  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   84.0  83.0  85.0  84.0  83.0  83.0  84.0  83.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -2.0  -1.0   0.0  -6.0  -8.0  -7.0  -5.0  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.1%        2.5%        1.8%
 25kt / 24h        9.8%       26.1%       17.9%
 30kt / 24h        2.9%       11.6%        7.3%
 35kt / 24h        2.1%       11.3%        6.7%
 40kt / 24h        0.4%       11.1%        5.7%
 45kt / 36h        7.7%       36.4%       22.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       15.7%        7.8%
 55kt / 48h       16.2%       24.4%       20.3%
 70kt / 48h        3.6%       17.9%       10.7%
 65kt / 72h       16.9%       39.5%       28.2%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.84

 EP122022 220904 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.90    100.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    135.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.7  21.1  25.1  26.2  21.3  21.8  24.3  17.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   84.0  83.0  85.0  84.0  83.0  83.0  84.0  83.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -2.0  -1.0   0.0  -6.0  -8.0  -7.0  -5.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%