Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP122022 220905 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.60    104.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     67.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     60.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    138.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.5  20.8  23.4  23.7  29.4  21.2  15.0  16.8  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   27.0  25.0  17.0  18.0  19.0  29.0   1.0   1.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 107.9  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    92.0 130.0 140.0 187.0 118.0  74.0 105.0  57.0  F  F VF VF  F  N  F  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   85.0  84.0  84.0  83.0  83.0  83.0  83.0  78.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -5.0  -6.0  -5.0 -13.0  -4.0  -2.0  10.0  N  F  F  F VF  F  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        9.4%        7.5%        8.5%
 25kt / 24h       38.0%       48.8%       43.4%
 30kt / 24h       16.6%       31.9%       24.3%
 35kt / 24h       13.2%       31.9%       22.6%
 40kt / 24h        6.1%       31.2%       18.7%
 45kt / 36h       21.2%       41.0%       31.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       18.8%        9.4%
 55kt / 48h       18.3%       24.5%       21.4%
 70kt / 48h        3.3%       15.2%        9.2%
 65kt / 72h        9.0%       28.3%       18.7%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.82

 EP122022 220905 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.60    104.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    138.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.5  20.8  23.4  23.7  29.4  21.2  15.0  16.8  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   85.0  84.0  84.0  83.0  83.0  83.0  83.0  78.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -5.0  -6.0  -5.0 -13.0  -4.0  -2.0  10.0  N  U  U  U VU  U  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%