Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP122022 220906 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.90    107.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    70.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    70.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     79.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     62.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    123.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.5  28.7  25.2  20.5  15.6  13.7  18.8  23.1  N  N  N  N  F  F  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   16.0  19.0  14.0  12.0  25.0   2.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         95.0  95.0  95.0  95.0  95.0  89.6  54.3  29.3  N  N  N  N  N  N  U VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   115.0 102.0 115.0  83.0  82.0  68.0  58.0  54.0  F  F  F  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   82.0  84.0  84.0  82.0  81.0  81.0  74.0  68.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0  -4.0 -11.0  -9.0  -6.0   6.0   9.0  17.0  N  F  F  F  F  N  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       50.8%       21.7%       36.3%
 25kt / 24h       62.8%       63.8%       63.3%
 30kt / 24h       49.7%       60.2%       55.0%
 35kt / 24h       49.7%       60.2%       55.0%
 40kt / 24h       39.5%       58.4%       48.9%
 45kt / 36h       42.3%       46.5%       44.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       26.5%       13.2%
 55kt / 48h       20.8%       35.4%       28.1%
 70kt / 48h        2.5%       15.2%        8.8%
 65kt / 72h        0.9%        6.6%        3.7%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.66

 EP122022 220906 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.90    107.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    70.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    70.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    123.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.5  28.7  25.2  20.5  15.6  13.7  18.8  23.1  N  N  N  N  U  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   82.0  84.0  84.0  82.0  81.0  81.0  74.0  68.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0  -4.0 -11.0  -9.0  -6.0   6.0   9.0  17.0  N  U  U  U  U  N  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%