Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP122022 220906 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.60    108.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    70.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    70.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     68.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     57.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    116.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.9  24.4  22.3  19.5  15.2  17.5  22.6  19.9  N  N  N  N  F  F  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   19.0  15.0  13.0  19.0   7.0   1.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         95.0  95.0  95.0  95.0  95.0  74.4  40.8  23.8  N  N  N  N  N  U  U VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   114.0 138.0  94.0 108.0  85.0  64.0  67.0  37.0  F VF  F  F  F  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   84.0  83.0  83.0  82.0  83.0  76.0  68.0  60.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -6.0 -12.0 -10.0  -4.0   4.0  13.0  20.0  11.0  F  F  F  F  N  U VU  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       16.0%        8.1%       12.1%
 25kt / 24h       40.5%       42.2%       41.3%
 30kt / 24h       23.2%       34.3%       28.8%
 35kt / 24h       18.9%       34.3%       26.6%
 40kt / 24h       18.2%       33.5%       25.8%
 45kt / 36h       28.7%       21.8%       25.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        8.4%        4.2%
 55kt / 48h       12.5%       17.4%       14.9%
 70kt / 48h        0.8%        4.2%        2.5%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.64

 EP122022 220906 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.60    108.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    70.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    70.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    116.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.9  24.4  22.3  19.5  15.2  17.5  22.6  19.9  N  N  N  N  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   84.0  83.0  83.0  82.0  83.0  76.0  68.0  60.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -6.0 -12.0 -10.0  -4.0   4.0  13.0  20.0  11.0  U  U  U  U  N  F VF  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%