Rapid Intensification Guidance EP122022 220906 12UTC Storm Located at : 17.60 109.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 75. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 75.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.60 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 88.00 F CONVECTION <-60C [%] 70.00 F IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 10.00 F TC SIZE [%] 111.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 21.0 15.6 11.7 11.1 15.7 20.0 23.2 11.8 N F F F F N N F Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 16.0 17.0 30.0 16.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 90.0 90.0 90.0 90.0 75.7 41.5 19.8 6.6 N N N N U U VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 116.0 119.0 100.0 80.0 84.0 61.0 47.0 18.0 F F F N N N N U Humidity 700-500 hPa 82.0 82.0 80.0 80.0 77.0 72.0 64.0 62.0 F F F F F N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -3.0 -3.0 0.0 -1.0 10.0 18.0 18.0 -2.0 N N N N U VU VU N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 31.5% 21.7% 26.6% 25kt / 24h 63.4% 72.5% 68.0% 30kt / 24h 48.0% 72.5% 60.2% 35kt / 24h 43.6% 72.5% 58.0% 40kt / 24h 41.7% 70.2% 55.9% 45kt / 36h 41.9% 40.4% 41.2% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 22.6% 11.3% 55kt / 48h 16.7% 19.4% 18.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.48 EP122022 220906 12UTC Storm Located at : 17.60 109.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 75. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 75.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.60 F TC SIZE [%] 111.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 21.0 15.6 11.7 11.1 15.7 20.0 23.2 11.8 N U U U U N N U Humidity 700-500 hPa 82.0 82.0 80.0 80.0 77.0 72.0 64.0 62.0 U U U U U N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -3.0 -3.0 0.0 -1.0 10.0 18.0 18.0 -2.0 N N N N F VF VF N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%