Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP122022 220907 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.00    111.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    75.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     76.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     63.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    105.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        14.2  10.4  11.5  15.3  23.7  23.9  16.5  14.4  F  F  F  F  N  N  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   30.0   7.0   1.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         90.0  90.0  87.0  69.4  37.2  12.8   2.6  -1.6  N  N  N  U  U VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   102.0 109.0 111.0  88.0  64.0  41.0  29.0  18.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   81.0  79.0  80.0  78.0  71.0  66.0  64.0  62.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -3.0   3.0  15.0  22.0  21.0   0.0  -6.0  N  N  N  U VU VU  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       22.6%       21.4%       22.0%
 25kt / 24h       47.4%       56.6%       52.0%
 30kt / 24h       31.2%       56.1%       43.7%
 35kt / 24h       28.2%       56.1%       42.1%
 40kt / 24h       28.2%       54.4%       41.3%
 45kt / 36h       18.4%       14.6%       16.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        5.9%        3.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.66

 EP122022 220907 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.00    111.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    75.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    105.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        14.2  10.4  11.5  15.3  23.7  23.9  16.5  14.4  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   81.0  79.0  80.0  78.0  71.0  66.0  64.0  62.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -3.0   3.0  15.0  22.0  21.0   0.0  -6.0  N  N  N  F VF VF  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%