Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP122022 220907 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.70    111.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    80.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    80.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     85.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     55.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    121.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        11.8  12.5  15.1  17.9  27.3  19.4  14.4  16.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   14.0   1.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         85.0  85.0  70.7  51.2  21.7   2.4  -3.8  -6.6  N  N  U  U VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    75.0  72.0  86.0  49.0  61.0  19.0  33.0  37.0  N  N  F  N  N  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   79.0  80.0  78.0  74.0  68.0  63.0  64.0  62.0  F  F  F  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0   4.0  12.0  18.0  23.0  22.0  -3.0  -8.0  N  N  U VU VU VU  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       35.4%       31.1%       33.2%
 25kt / 24h       42.6%       51.0%       46.8%
 30kt / 24h       30.3%       51.0%       40.6%
 35kt / 24h       30.3%       51.0%       40.6%
 40kt / 24h       16.5%       48.5%       32.5%
 45kt / 36h       14.9%       13.2%       14.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.32

 EP122022 220907 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.70    111.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    80.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    80.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    121.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        11.8  12.5  15.1  17.9  27.3  19.4  14.4  16.0  U  U  U  N  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   79.0  80.0  78.0  74.0  68.0  63.0  64.0  62.0  U  U  U  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0   4.0  12.0  18.0  23.0  22.0  -3.0  -8.0  N  N  F VF VF VF  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%