Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP122022 220907 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.60    112.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    90.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    90.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     62.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     35.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    119.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        12.9  16.3  18.5  22.5  24.2  18.4  16.4  18.8  F  F  N  N  N  F  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    1.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         75.0  60.7  39.4  23.6  -1.3 -12.4 -15.3 -20.4  U  U  U VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    63.0  78.0  51.0  63.0  36.0  14.0  39.0  36.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   80.0  77.0  73.0  71.0  64.0  63.0  61.0  64.0  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0  11.0  16.0  13.0  22.0  -3.0  -8.0   0.0  N  U  U  U VU  N  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       32.9%       17.7%       25.3%
 25kt / 24h       15.1%       16.3%       15.7%
 30kt / 24h       13.8%       11.9%       12.9%
 35kt / 24h       13.8%       11.9%       12.9%
 40kt / 24h        6.0%       11.7%        8.9%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.58

 EP122022 220907 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.60    112.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    90.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    90.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    119.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        12.9  16.3  18.5  22.5  24.2  18.4  16.4  18.8  U  U  N  N  N  N  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   80.0  77.0  73.0  71.0  64.0  63.0  61.0  64.0  U  U  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0  11.0  16.0  13.0  22.0  -3.0  -8.0   0.0  N  F  F  F VF  N  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%