Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP122022 220908 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.60    112.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    80.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    80.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     68.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     27.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    117.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.6  23.4  24.7  26.6  18.9  19.0  23.6  18.8  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         51.2  36.5  20.5   5.0  -3.8  -4.6  -9.2 -14.3  U  U VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    79.0  69.0  95.0  82.0   4.0  58.0  17.0  14.0  N  N  F  N  U  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   74.0  72.0  67.0  63.0  60.0  60.0  64.0  57.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  14.0   9.0  16.0  17.0  -6.0 -12.0  -6.0  -7.0  U  U  U  U  F  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.0%        1.0%        1.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.5%        0.9%        0.7%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        0.4%        0.4%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 25.70

 EP122022 220908 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.60    112.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    80.