Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP122022 220908 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     23.90    113.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    75.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    10.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     33.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      6.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    117.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.8  24.2  23.2  21.5  14.9  17.1  17.8  19.8  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         41.5  30.4   5.8   1.9   1.2  -0.9  -8.3  -8.3  U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    63.0  79.0  67.0  41.0  30.0  26.0   4.0 -21.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  67.0  63.0  60.0  63.0  61.0  61.0  52.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  11.0  11.0  22.0   7.0  -7.0  -6.0  -3.0  -6.0  U  U VU  N  F  F  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.2%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 24.54

 EP122022 220908 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     23.90    113.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.