Rapid Intensification Guidance EP122022 220910 00UTC Storm Located at : 31.20 118.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -10.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 11.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 0.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 5.90 F TC SIZE [%] 128.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 13.1 17.1 17.2 15.3 21.0 25.5 32.8 28.1 F F F F N N U N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 33.4 30.1 28.2 27.2 26.8 28.2 29.6 31.7 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 10.0 8.0 0.0 6.0 -13.0 -1.0 -22.0 -23.0 U U U U U U VU VU Humidity 700-500 hPa 60.0 61.0 60.0 56.0 49.0 44.0 39.0 34.0 N N N U U VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -3.0 0.0 -1.0 -1.0 -2.0 -3.0 -4.0 -6.0 N N N N N N F F Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 20.46 EP122022 220910 00UTC Storm Located at : 31.20 118.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35.