Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP132022 220916 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.60     95.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     30.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     15.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    104.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        30.2  29.3  26.4  26.7  28.1  18.0  19.3  19.3  N  N  N  N  N  F  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   11.0  11.0  13.0  14.0  19.0  18.0  11.0  11.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   112.0 107.0 130.0 152.0 124.0 143.0  91.0  91.0  F  F  F VF  F VF  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   86.0  86.0  86.0  88.0  86.0  85.0  86.0  86.0  F  F  F VF  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -2.0  -3.0  -5.0 -11.0 -11.0  -6.0  -6.0  N  N  N  F  F  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.5%        1.0%        0.8%
 25kt / 24h        6.0%       14.2%       10.1%
 30kt / 24h        1.4%        4.5%        3.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.7%        4.4%        2.5%
 40kt / 24h        0.7%        4.4%        2.5%
 45kt / 36h        3.8%       16.2%       10.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        4.2%        2.1%
 55kt / 48h        7.5%       10.5%        9.0%
 70kt / 48h        1.6%        6.9%        4.2%
 65kt / 72h       11.8%       26.0%       18.9%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.86

 EP132022 220916 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.60     95.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    104.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        30.2  29.3  26.4  26.7  28.1  18.0  19.3  19.3  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   86.0  86.0  86.0  88.0  86.0  85.0  86.0  86.0  U  U  U VU  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -2.0  -3.0  -5.0 -11.0 -11.0  -6.0  -6.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%