Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP132022 220916 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.40     96.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     40.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     27.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    114.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.7  24.6  24.7  22.1  25.5  21.2  20.8  20.8  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   11.0  14.0  17.0  19.0  18.0  11.0  12.0  12.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   153.0 141.0 124.0 126.0 127.0  96.0  90.0  90.0 VF VF  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   86.0  89.0  89.0  88.0  85.0  84.0  85.0  85.0  F VF VF VF  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -4.0  -8.0  -8.0 -14.0 -10.0  -4.0  -4.0  N  F  F  F VF  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.2%        1.6%        1.4%
 25kt / 24h       11.4%       21.9%       16.6%
 30kt / 24h        3.6%        8.5%        6.1%
 35kt / 24h        1.3%        8.5%        4.9%
 40kt / 24h        1.3%        8.5%        4.9%
 45kt / 36h        8.5%       23.8%       16.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        7.7%        3.8%
 55kt / 48h       11.4%       15.4%       13.4%
 70kt / 48h        2.1%        9.7%        5.9%
 65kt / 72h        9.9%       25.7%       17.8%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.86

 EP132022 220916 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.40     96.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    114.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.7  24.6  24.7  22.1  25.5  21.2  20.8  20.8  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   86.0  89.0  89.0  88.0  85.0  84.0  85.0  85.0  U VU VU VU  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -4.0  -8.0  -8.0 -14.0 -10.0  -4.0  -4.0  N  U  U  U VU  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%