Rapid Intensification Guidance EP132022 220917 00UTC Storm Located at : 14.50 97.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 45.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 40.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 8.00 F TC SIZE [%] 104.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 32.5 29.8 27.6 23.3 25.6 25.6 25.6 25.6 U N N N N N N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 17.0 19.0 19.0 17.0 11.0 11.0 11.0 11.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 F F F F F F F F 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 104.0 95.0 129.0 113.0 92.0 92.0 92.0 92.0 F F F F F F F F Humidity 700-500 hPa 88.0 86.0 85.0 85.0 87.0 87.0 87.0 87.0 VF F F F VF VF VF VF T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -9.0 -8.0 -11.0 -11.0 -8.0 -8.0 -8.0 -8.0 F F F F F F F F Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.4% 0.7% 0.6% 25kt / 24h 4.9% 12.1% 8.5% 30kt / 24h 0.9% 4.1% 2.5% 35kt / 24h 0.5% 3.9% 2.2% 40kt / 24h 0.5% 3.9% 2.2% 45kt / 36h 3.2% 12.1% 7.7% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 3.0% 1.5% 55kt / 48h 5.3% 7.8% 6.6% 70kt / 48h 0.2% 3.8% 2.0% 65kt / 72h 3.9% 12.9% 8.4% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.80 EP132022 220917 00UTC Storm Located at : 14.50 97.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F TC SIZE [%] 104.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 32.5 29.8 27.6 23.3 25.6 25.6 25.6 25.6 N N N N N N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 88.0 86.0 85.0 85.0 87.0 87.0 87.0 87.0 VU U U U VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -9.0 -8.0 -11.0 -11.0 -8.0 -8.0 -8.0 -8.0 U U U U U U U U Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%