Rapid Intensification Guidance EP132022 220917 06UTC Storm Located at : 15.10 98.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 40. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 40.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 52.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 44.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 8.80 F TC SIZE [%] 112.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 31.4 28.8 22.0 21.1 20.9 20.9 20.9 20.9 U N N N N N N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 19.0 19.0 18.0 13.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 108.0 117.0 126.0 115.0 102.0 102.0 102.0 102.0 F F F F F F F F Humidity 700-500 hPa 86.0 86.0 86.0 86.0 86.0 86.0 86.0 86.0 F F F F F F F F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -7.0 -14.0 -11.0 -10.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 F VF F F N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 1.7% 1.6% 1.7% 25kt / 24h 12.4% 22.6% 17.5% 30kt / 24h 4.3% 9.6% 7.0% 35kt / 24h 1.9% 9.6% 5.8% 40kt / 24h 1.7% 9.6% 5.7% 45kt / 36h 9.1% 23.4% 16.2% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 8.0% 4.0% 55kt / 48h 10.9% 15.9% 13.4% 70kt / 48h 1.2% 8.5% 4.9% 65kt / 72h 6.7% 20.9% 13.8% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.78 EP132022 220917 06UTC Storm Located at : 15.10 98.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 40. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 40.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F TC SIZE [%] 112.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 31.4 28.8 22.0 21.1 20.9 20.9 20.9 20.9 N N N N N N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 86.0 86.0 86.0 86.0 86.0 86.0 86.0 86.0 U U U U U U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -7.0 -14.0 -11.0 -10.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 U VU U U N N N N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%