Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP132022 220917 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.90     98.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     33.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     13.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    123.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.7  21.6  22.0  24.7  22.6  22.6  22.6  22.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   17.0  16.0  12.0  10.0  11.0  11.0  11.0  11.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   112.0 112.0 109.0 102.0  74.0  74.0  74.0  74.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   86.0  86.0  85.0  87.0  86.0  86.0  86.0  86.0  F  F  F VF  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -9.0  -7.0 -10.0  -5.0  -6.0  -6.0  -6.0  -6.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.4%        0.8%        0.6%
 25kt / 24h        4.7%       12.3%        8.5%
 30kt / 24h        1.1%        4.3%        2.7%
 35kt / 24h        0.4%        4.1%        2.3%
 40kt / 24h        0.2%        4.1%        2.2%
 45kt / 36h        3.3%       12.0%        7.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        3.2%        1.6%
 55kt / 48h        5.0%        8.6%        6.8%
 70kt / 48h        0.4%        4.0%        2.2%
 65kt / 72h        4.1%       13.5%        8.8%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.76

 EP132022 220917 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.90     98.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    123.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.7  21.6  22.0  24.7  22.6  22.6  22.6  22.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   86.0  86.0  85.0  87.0  86.0  86.0  86.0  86.0  U  U  U VU  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -9.0  -7.0 -10.0  -5.0  -6.0  -6.0  -6.0  -6.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%