Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP142022 220918 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.30    106.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     17.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     13.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    136.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        30.6  28.6  25.9  23.2  27.6  29.6  29.9  27.3  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   10.0   8.0   8.0   9.0   5.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        104.4 100.5  96.6  93.0  87.7  82.7  84.3  87.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    81.0  49.0  67.0  50.0  52.0  10.0 -33.0  16.0  N  N  N  N  N  U VU  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   84.0  83.0  82.0  80.0  73.0  68.0  66.0  66.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -8.0  -6.0  -2.0  -4.0   0.0   1.0   2.0   1.0  F  F  N  F  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.2%        0.2%
 25kt / 24h        0.5%        1.5%        1.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        0.4%        0.4%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        1.5%        0.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.2%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.28

 EP142022 220918 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.30    106.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.