Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP142022 220919 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.00    107.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     49.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     43.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    129.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.0  26.1  25.5  28.7  27.6  26.8  17.3  16.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    9.0   8.0   4.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   3.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         88.0  84.4  82.7  79.3  74.6  79.3  81.0  88.0  N  N  N  N  U  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    81.0  72.0  56.0  60.0  10.0 -39.0  53.0  14.0  N  N  N  N  U VU  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   81.0  78.0  72.0  68.0  66.0  62.0  60.0  55.0  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   1.0   4.0   3.0   5.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.0%        0.8%        0.9%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        2.8%        1.7%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        1.0%        0.6%
 35kt / 24h        0.2%        0.8%        0.5%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.8%        0.4%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        2.9%        1.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.8%        0.4%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.8%        0.4%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 26.78

 EP142022 220919 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.00    107.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.