Rapid Intensification Guidance EP142022 220919 06UTC Storm Located at : 19.90 108.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 50. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 50.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 2.60 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 42.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 34.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 6.50 F TC SIZE [%] 112.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 23.8 23.6 26.5 26.1 25.6 23.1 17.7 14.9 N N N N N N F F Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 8.0 5.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 84.8 81.2 77.7 74.3 71.1 71.1 72.7 79.4 N N N U U U U N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 51.0 39.0 40.0 23.0 -41.0 31.0 54.0 1.0 N N N U VU N N U Humidity 700-500 hPa 78.0 73.0 69.0 67.0 67.0 65.0 61.0 59.0 F N N N N N N U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -1.0 -1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.0 7.0 2.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 3.5% 1.9% 2.7% 25kt / 24h 1.2% 4.5% 2.9% 30kt / 24h 0.9% 1.7% 1.3% 35kt / 24h 0.9% 1.6% 1.2% 40kt / 24h 0.3% 1.6% 1.0% 45kt / 36h 0.3% 4.4% 2.3% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 1.3% 0.7% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.3% 0.2% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 26.82 EP142022 220919 06UTC Storm Located at : 19.90 108.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 50.