Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP142022 220919 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.40    108.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     38.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     29.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    120.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.6  28.2  24.6  23.6  25.9  19.7  15.9  14.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    5.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   1.0   1.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         81.6  76.2  69.3  64.6  66.1  71.0  78.0  87.4  N  U  U  U  U  U  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    45.0  50.0   5.0 -25.0   3.0  28.0  16.0 -17.0  N  N  U VU  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   75.0  71.0  68.0  69.0  65.0  64.0  59.0  56.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0   0.0   0.0   1.0   1.0   3.0   3.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        4.2%        1.6%        2.9%
 25kt / 24h        1.3%        3.4%        2.3%
 30kt / 24h        1.3%        1.4%        1.3%
 35kt / 24h        1.3%        1.3%        1.3%
 40kt / 24h        0.2%        1.3%        0.7%
 45kt / 36h        0.3%        2.8%        1.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.8%        0.4%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 26.78

 EP142022 220919 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.40    108.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.