Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP142022 220920 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.90    110.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    10.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     27.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     21.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     98.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.7  26.7  26.8  23.5  20.1  17.7  13.0  15.3  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   1.0   0.0   1.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         76.1  76.1  77.7  79.3  84.4  93.5  89.8  81.0  U  U  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    19.0   0.0  -7.0  18.0  48.0  35.0   2.0  13.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   67.0  67.0  63.0  60.0  61.0  55.0  53.0  48.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   2.0   2.0   2.0   3.0   4.0   2.0   3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.3%        0.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.1%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 26.30

 EP142022 220920 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.90    110.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.